The article explains how to determine the technologies that will be popularly used in the future. Right technology forecast is achieved based on analysis of important technology factors. These factors include qualitative and quantitative data, adoption level, and technology type.
Qualitative and quantitative data
Quantitative information forecasts the level of technology based on statistical analysis. The increase in the sales volume of a technology product or service implies that the demand for the product is increasing. However, an increase in sales may indicate diminishing returns. It is thus necessary to determine the areas of technology improvements that customers prefer. Qualitative information is required to determine the future market conditions carefully. Diminishing return is shown statistically using the S-curve graph. The curve is understood by analyzing three issues. These issues are technology improvement that is not clearly understood, technology that is better understood hence performance easily improves, and technology at the limit where investments generate fewer performance returns.
Adoption level
Technology that is adopted quickly is desirable to investors. However, these technologies have a tendency of expiring or reaching their limits quickly. The quick take off of the technology is mainly because of the huge marketing budget that is financed by venture capitalists. Technologies with fast adoption rates are unsustainable and, therefore, generate minimal long-term returns. The adoption rate is influenced by the level of quantitative and qualitative information. Technology adoption is also influenced by trust. Old technology is preferred because it has been tried. The new technology generates resistance because it involves changes.
Technology type
Closed source technology is favored more than open source technology because it is expertly controlled and promoted. The technology also attracts huge investments for people or organizations that have an interest in its management. Open source technologies are affordable and easily adopted by organizations. However, open technologies are not centrally managed, and this results in fragmentation and incompatibility of information. There is no incentive for investments because of the fragmentation. Hybrid technology is the best option because it combines both closed and open source technologies. Android is a type of hybrid technology because it has intellectual property and allows free usage.
